Thursday, April 13, 2006

This kind of thing kills me...

Ok, you are a big deal oil refiner. You even retail your gas.

Then you do something stupid.

Like be net short on your inputs, namely oil.

This shouldn't hurt TSO in the long run but I am really stuck on how this happens.

Maybe it's me, I probably don't understand the business.

I don't understand the business: It seems that Tesoro sells the contracts to hedge some long haul oil they buy for their refineries. Hopefully, this loss will turn green in the next quarter as that oil is processed and sold.
But I know what a hedge in oil is: futures in crude. Contracts that TSO were holding went up $6 last month. This had the effect of reducing earning estimates by 20% for the quarter? If oil went up and TSO lost, can't I conclude that they were betting that oil was going down further?

In other news, LRCX had a good quarter, TRFX will report later today. SNDK will become one of the S&P 500. Woo hoo Free Money!

One last thing, our man in the field flyingDane turned up PXPL. He likes it and I think I might take a look if I get a chance. Short story is it sells for a small premium to the cash on hand. Big argument against is their current restatement of revenues. I have NO position on this one and I suggest you do your own due diligence, blah, blah, blah.

If anything interesting pops up, I will report back.

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